Set-ups

This will be an interesting week. It’s all about equities and whether they will further break down out of the Anti set-up. I see a high probability and will enter aggressively short on further deterioration. I don’t see much edge to pick any particular stocks. The weakest group is probably the financials, so not sure yet wether to enter either ES Futures or $XLF ETF.

I will stay on the sidelines for long entries until the big picture resolves into either reversal or oversold, but the situation helps to find the really strongest candidates holding up in their bullish patterns. Further below a few I like most.


$XLF – Anti ShortSPDR - FINANCIAL.png


$EURNZD – Anti LongNZD.png

Maybe a few days to early yet, but seems the only interesting FX set-up at all.


$HE – BO LongHAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES.png


$CVCO – PB LongCAVCO INDUSTRIES INC..png


$EPAM – PB LongEPAM SYSTEMS INC..png


$DRI – PB LongDARDEN RESTAURANTS INC..png


$PCH – PB LongPOTLATCH CORP..png


$SNI – PB LongSCRIPPS NETWORKS INTERACTIVE.png

 

Week 2017-12 – Report

Screening

I was out for the first part of the week, so as anticipated and planned no screening. Returned to screening, although a little sloppy also as market conditions do not favor much activity at this point. Still it seems as it is exactly now when to find the best long candidates once the market turns back to bullish mode.

Execution

Execution was daily although I was out. I noticed that I am very uncomfortable with IAB Web Trader – need to set this up better for future situations where I cannot work with TWS. I used finally Tradingview website and my phone app to adjust trades.

Research

I worked relentless through my shortened week. There was so much I was looking into backtesting that I am not able to remember all… In summary, I did not find much value in my FX “pattern”, but also came across some old backtests and wonder whether there is more to find when focusing on time of the day or whether this may be cherrypicking etc.

In any case, FX is of second priority. I was going through more ideas on equities that look really really promising and performance enhancing. There is still more work to do and the main focus this week shall be on progressing and structuring it into something more actionable.

HR

Still maintaining the chain for screening, execution and meditation unbroken which is the core of my work.

Meditation is slipping too much. I only do 5min before falling asleep. Need to improve and also revisit targets for sport and training.

Admin/IT

Worked on further screens and indicator to help me in my manual backtest exercise I am planning. Still not there yet, so some more work to do this week.

Quality

Missed on working on my business plan, but I expected this. This week is end of month, so I should do this this week and finish my best/worst trades of the quarter.

 

Tasks for next week

BP update

Research – set-up papertrading, i.e. work with Tradingview Pinescript – if not possible, go to Prorealtime, to build entry indicator

Research – Runaway pullbacks, slowMACD enhancement – finish and structure results

Week 2017-11 – Report

Screening

Was ok, doing my work every day, cleaning up WL etc.

Execution

Execution was daily and flawless.

Research

The concept I mentioned last week did not work especially well so I changed my focus for the latter part of the week. I started to manually backtest FX on 30min candles, simply applying my set-ups (mentally adjusted to what I believe different characteristic of FX and especially on lower timeframes). Well, it is huge effort in time and discipline and I have only started, but the results have been frustrating so far… Anyhow there are 2 things I have taken away so far:

  • Most of the time prices are really chopping forth and back without all too much movement. But then there are few times when really huge moves happen. I believe this is extremely challenging both in backtesting but especially in realtime trading, but it is what it is and any strategy should take this into account in some way.
  • I noticed a concept of price making a huge move, then consolidating with subsequent inside bars, to then do the 2nd move in the same direction. Potentially seeing patterns where no are, but I quickly tried to quantify it, and with limited data seems reasonably promising.

I also worked on a very classic screener with moving average and MACD. Nothing fancy, but as I started reading Trading Day by Day: Winning the Zero Sum Game of Futures Trading I just wanted to try (also will check Adam Grimes’ thought on this in his book). Well, and beyond that I found a small modification which gives an interesting list of what I would call “runaway pullbacks” – those that are hardly pulling back and simply pressing further.

So next week which will be quite shortened for me, I will focus on the FX pattern which should not take too long, then on the runaway pullbacks and try to further manually backtest if any time left

HR

Still maintaining the chain for screening, execution and meditation unbroken which is the core of my work. I am satisfied with that, but looking forward I need to find a better way to incorporate especially meditation into my day as it happened quite often that I did a shortened session just before going to sleep.

As mentioned last week I have let go off training and also lacking focus on sport, which is clearly a failure or my plan so far. Need to revisit.

Admin/IT

Created the screens mentioned in Research.

Quality

I was going to update my business plan as approaching end of quarter which is much needed as in fact I have abandoned my “semi-automatic” approaches until further notice…  I was putting it on hold as I thought I could incorporate anything from the FX exercise, but as I am writing this I notice how stupid this sounds. No way will I have any new insights ready to be implemented in the next days, so task for next week is clearly to update the business plan, simplify it to my core process and especially check on rules for my trading.

Further comments

Well, next week will be challenging as I am traveling alone with 2 kids.

I will also face challenges in the execution of my screening which I will have to drop due to unavailablity of my software at least next Monday/Tuesday.

In any case I wanted to leave this documented that this is not a slip in discipline but simple real life constraints. I will at least manage my existing positions over the weekend and Monday/Tuesday.

Tasks for next week

Knowing that I will not be able to finish all tasks next week given that I have only 3 days I still list them all. Anything not finished next week will simply slip into the following.

BP update

Research – set-up papertrading for abandoned approaches

Research – FX 30min approach

Research – Runaway pullbacks

Research – FX 30min manual backtesting

Set-ups

Maybe first a long needed clarification:

The set-ups I post are based on my current PF and my personal view of what would likely enhance my PF over the upcoming week.

Currently my PF is positioned mostly short with reasonably tight stops. For the beginning of the week I see 2  likely scenarios:

a) further consolidation through time in a tight range near last week’s close and

b) volatility increase and thrust downside to wash out weak longs.

I do not see a strong upside momentum as likely, at least not on Monday/Tuesday. So basically my plan for stocks is to keep my current exposure and potentially add in case the downward momentum for scenario b) develops on especially short-term Anti shorts that could pick up speed in such situation. Said this, for this week’s post I skip the long positions (at the risk of being caught on the wrong foot), although my WL is full of interesting candidates, which may become of interest towards the end of the week.


$COST – Anti ShortCOSTCO WHOLESALE.png


$TSLA – Anti ShortTESLA INC..png


$JWN – PB ShortNORDSTROM INC..png


$ZC – PB ShortZCXXX.PNG

This one would ideally see some consolidation and volatility contraction around the current price level to set up for a HTF (weekly) breakdown.

Week 2017-10 – Report

Screening

Was ok, doing my work every day, cleaning up WL etc.

Execution

Execution was daily. I was especially aware of my sequence of order entry to avoid mixing up long and short which worked quite well for now.

Today I was about to enter an order with 400 shares instead of 40, but fortunately noticed.

Research

I was working on the concept I mentioned last week with mixed results and conclusions. I’ll have to let it sit for a while.

There was one very simple quote at the beginning of the Chat With Traders interview with Adam Grimes that stuck with me:

Market makes a big move.

Do we position for another big move in that same direction, do we look for a reversal or is there no edge and do we do nothing?

Well, extemely simple and I’d like to focus on this for the coming week(s), structuring my work beforehand etc.

HR

Still maintaining the chain for screening, execution and meditation unbroken which is the core of my work.

Let go off training for now and I’ll have to revisit sport in some way as I am struggling to meet 5 times a week and may need to reduce to 4 times.

Admin/IT

Cleaned up all my old screens I did not use in a while.

Quality

 

I started working on my best/worst trades for the quarter. Nothing more of importance.

Set-ups

$DATA – PB LongTABLEAU SOFTWARE INC. CLASS A.png
A little deeper PB than usual. Was counting for a FT candle Friday which did not happen, but set-up seems still attractive.

$UNIT – PB LongUNITI GROUP INC..png
Very good short term momentum.

$AGN – PB LongALLERGAN PLC.png
Tight PB after 2nd trend leg. Is in the middle of a HTF range, i.e. good further upside potential.

$RXN – BO Long
REXNORD CORP..png
Pressure againts upper range with timid breakout and very tight consolidation. Seems poised to break if market conditions are constructive.

$EEP – Anti Short
ENBRIDGE ENERGY L.P. CLASS A.png
Has been couple of weeks on my WL, seems ready to break down further if breaking out low.

$PI – PB ShortIMPINJ INC..png
Breaking below rising trendline


Week 2017-09 – Report

Screening

Was ok, doing my work every day, cleaning up WL etc.

Execution

Execution was daily but it happened twice again that I entered buy instead of sell orders. Again no damage at all, not even a missed or late trade by that and I had noticed the error reasonably fast after the order went live.

Research

 

I came across a concept that put almost all my prior work upside down and I have to revisit all ideas. It is more appropiate to think about the details in my personal journal.

 HR

Pressure in my day job released mostly since Tuesday, but still feeling headwind to keep up the streak. I did not mention before but my allergies do not favor the situation, but I still hope to improve duration of meditation and pick up some training this week which seems not too stressful and by that also push into more sports.

Here my chain, still unbroken for meditation and my trading activities but not so glorious for sport and training.

Admin/IT

Nothing noteworthy this week.

Quality

Month end and I have to work through my statements. I did some statistics last week already, so only statements.

Regarding the execution problem of repeated mess up of buy order instead of sell orders: 2 action items to solve this: a) find a way to reduce potential erroneous order entry and b) find a way to detect it immediately i.e. before sending order to exchange.

For a) I have already noticed that one of the problems is when I use the order entry mask, first select short and then afterwards change the security, the order entry mask jumps back to buy. I must establish a routine to always always choose first the security, then long/short, then qty etc. Awareness is a first step, if it does not work I may need a checklist.

For b) I need to investigate this week whether there is a way to make a long or short entry more visual in my TWS. I never execute immediately but always first visualize the entry trigger and SL in the chart, but there is no way to differentiate which is the entry trigger and which the SL. Need to find out.