Was ok, doing my work every day, cleaning up WL etc.
Execution was daily and flawless.
The concept I mentioned last week did not work especially well so I changed my focus for the latter part of the week. I started to manually backtest FX on 30min candles, simply applying my set-ups (mentally adjusted to what I believe different characteristic of FX and especially on lower timeframes). Well, it is huge effort in time and discipline and I have only started, but the results have been frustrating so far… Anyhow there are 2 things I have taken away so far:
- Most of the time prices are really chopping forth and back without all too much movement. But then there are few times when really huge moves happen. I believe this is extremely challenging both in backtesting but especially in realtime trading, but it is what it is and any strategy should take this into account in some way.
- I noticed a concept of price making a huge move, then consolidating with subsequent inside bars, to then do the 2nd move in the same direction. Potentially seeing patterns where no are, but I quickly tried to quantify it, and with limited data seems reasonably promising.
I also worked on a very classic screener with moving average and MACD. Nothing fancy, but as I started reading Trading Day by Day: Winning the Zero Sum Game of Futures Trading I just wanted to try (also will check Adam Grimes’ thought on this in his book). Well, and beyond that I found a small modification which gives an interesting list of what I would call “runaway pullbacks” – those that are hardly pulling back and simply pressing further.
So next week which will be quite shortened for me, I will focus on the FX pattern which should not take too long, then on the runaway pullbacks and try to further manually backtest if any time left
Still maintaining the chain for screening, execution and meditation unbroken which is the core of my work. I am satisfied with that, but looking forward I need to find a better way to incorporate especially meditation into my day as it happened quite often that I did a shortened session just before going to sleep.
As mentioned last week I have let go off training and also lacking focus on sport, which is clearly a failure or my plan so far. Need to revisit.
Created the screens mentioned in Research.
I was going to update my business plan as approaching end of quarter which is much needed as in fact I have abandoned my “semi-automatic” approaches until further notice… I was putting it on hold as I thought I could incorporate anything from the FX exercise, but as I am writing this I notice how stupid this sounds. No way will I have any new insights ready to be implemented in the next days, so task for next week is clearly to update the business plan, simplify it to my core process and especially check on rules for my trading.
Well, next week will be challenging as I am traveling alone with 2 kids.
I will also face challenges in the execution of my screening which I will have to drop due to unavailablity of my software at least next Monday/Tuesday.
In any case I wanted to leave this documented that this is not a slip in discipline but simple real life constraints. I will at least manage my existing positions over the weekend and Monday/Tuesday.
Tasks for next week
Knowing that I will not be able to finish all tasks next week given that I have only 3 days I still list them all. Anything not finished next week will simply slip into the following.
Research – set-up papertrading for abandoned approaches
Research – FX 30min approach
Research – Runaway pullbacks
Research – FX 30min manual backtesting