Coming close to the end of the quarter I thought it is a good time to review my best and worst performing trades.
$WMB – PB Long (1.0)R
The set-up was a borderline between PB weekly and BO daily. I think it was a valid set-up and the SL placement was reasonable. I got filled right at the top of a false BO, then got lucky of just not being stopped out quickly and see a quick recovery to new highs tightening my SL, but then got smashed by the huge gap through my SL. In the end I was lucky not to suffer a worse result. In any case, I think there was nothing wrong on my side, this is just the usual type of loser that happen once in a while.
$AUDUSD – PB Short (1.0)R
This one hurts… A very valid PB set-up, filled at the bottom, stopped out at the top only with (1.0)R to see it go off immediately to easily ~2R… This trade was actually suggested by my Waverly Advisors subscription. In hindsight I must say that I had probably chosen a slightly wider SL, but that would have been pure luck had it played out better…
$TWI – PB Long (1.0)R
Again at the risk of falling into the trap of hindsight bias, but the first thing that I noticed here is that the prior trend legs started from the bottom of the preceding pullback leg, while I opted for a breakout entry out of the consolidation, fell into the trap only to see my rather tight SL being triggered. Eventually the stock consolidated a little further and then made another move – again from the bottom of the pullback range… I think this is one I have to take on the responsibility and need to improvement.
$ROST – PB Long (0.9)R
This looks like a too tight stop or a too messy set-up, probably both. The momentum of the entry bar seemed very good, the tight consolidation after the failed follow through was ok, but then momentum vanished quickly, I tightened my SL a little bit and got out soon. The trade management was ok, but the set-up was not optimal. Again, this one goes on my list of improvement needs.
$LYB – PB Long (0.9)R
This one look quite attractive when I entered after some sort of failure test, but I got executed way above the high of the day and then saw it bleeding with low volatility right into my SL. I want to keep this review simple, but as I faced 3 close to 1R losses on long entries on stocks I have to notice that my actions seem not to take into account the overall market, which – again in hindsight – seemed to be overextended around this time (13-16 Dec 2016).
$GNTX – PB Long (0.9)R
In contrast to the previous one I had the tailwind from the overall market situation on this one, as SP500 was consolidating when entering here. Set-up seemed ok, stock broke out after tight consolidation and I tightened my SL, but then got hit by the gap open after earnings. Not much more to say except shit happens.
$EFX – PB Short (1.0)R
The entry does not look so compelling on the daily chart, but reasonable attractive on the weekly. In hindsight I think I should have tried to enter a little lower than my actual enty, to avoid being sucked into the trade but such false breakout. In the end I got lucky to have been stopped out the day before a gap up. In summary, too tight entry.
$PPC – PB Short (1.0)R
Not much to say beyond F-U… Good set-up, gap down open and entry short and being stopped out in less than 90min… I cannot see anything wrong, except the result…
$AGN – PB Long (1.0)R
Again, I’d say rather bad luck. Got sucked into false breakout by a few points only. Both entry and exit points seem aggressive but still reasonable.
$CSC- PB Long (0.9)R
In hindsight maybe a little too tight SL, but would not have changed the result. The trend was and is very solid, but maybe there are better set-ups out there with less agressive countertrend “shocks”.
$JPM- PB Long (0.9)R
Just did not work out. The whole market set back, especially financials. Got a terrible execution here as well, and need to look into the concept of getting out if not strong into the close.
$WDC- PB Long (0.9)R
Picture perfect trade… only opposite direction… Nothing I can see wrong with it, except not re-entering, but I had it on my list and simply chose other entries.
$ES- PB Long (1.0)R
The set-up is very reasonable but I have to think deeper about the concept of only holding into a strong close. This would have saved me here.